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Confusing Day in Bondland

#1
Interesting and confusing day in bond land.  FI CEFs and both IG and junk ETFs moved sharply higher with seeming large institutional CEF buying late in the day.  However, Treasury 10s and 30s took a pretty good nosedive just after 1pm when it was revealed that the 30yr auction was a bit of a mess --- barely over 2x coverage and tailed 2bps back of the 12:59 quote.  At least today, credit spreads narrowed and leveraged credit products outperformed Treasurys.  Why --- what might be going on?


   PERHAPS while we were consumed with political theater, some professionals noted that 1) mortgage applications were down AGAIN, clearly suffering from higher mortgage rates, 2) consumer credit for last month was only $11b, well below estimates and half the prior month, and 3) crude oil has just spilled over $10 in recent weeks.  Quarterly GDP may have hit a tax-ish high 4.2% in Q2, followed by a still robust 3.5-ish% in Q3, with predictions in the high 2's for this quarter.  Great numbers but bad trend --- and ECRI leaders growth smashed down below zero after months of steady decline.  Is this the beginning of a narrative change? Will Fed HAVE TO stop hiking earlier than they anticipate?  Are CEF portfolio earnings over 8% good enough that the difference between Fed stopping at 2.5% or 3.5% is essentially irrelevant? 
  Ideas?  Changing narrative?  Accident?  Goofy correlation between equities and bonds just continuing apace?  What do you think?
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#2
The stock market, currency, and bonds have an interrelationship.     Stocks were up hard and yields were down (which means that the price of bonds went up).     The only anomaly that stands out to me is that there is little difference in yield between junk and investment grade.   This compression might indicate that high yield bonds (and bond funds) are extremely risky vs investment grade. 
 
The chart shows an index of the total market vs an index of Treasury 10 year yield.     I would expect those indexes to kiss sometime in the future, and/or crossover.
   
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#3
I have been chasing a buying opp price discovery in both some Citigroup and AIG just +2 year bonds, over the last two days. But these corporates seem to be rallying ever so slightly despite the .TNX again surging PAST 3.2%.  Same difficulty finding decent pricing on near term to maturity tax advantaged preferreds below par with +5.8% yield.
 
In the 3yr to 3+yr (3/'23) the Enstar Insurance bonds are holding their ground near 99.900 vs having fallen off to 99.83 handles earlier in the week. 
 
Just have to be patient and let the cows come in, in their own good time.  I think the longer you wait for your limit wish and price discovery incrementally better price offerings the better we will do on YTM.   
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#4
Perhaps I described the day's price action poorly.  I'll try again.
 
Treasurys started very strong and faded badly after the poor (closest to failing in years) 30yr auction.  10yrs ended the day unchanged.  On the other hand, BOTH IG and JUNK closed nicely higher.  That means spread product of both qualities rallied vs. Treasuries, meaning credit spreads NARROWED today.  Stocks soared and Treasury prices were unchanged.
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#5
Thanks for the observations, especially with respect to the bond markets. Personally I have never understood the debt markets so your explanations are particularly appreciated.
 
I operated oil wells for a living. The wells I ran were either free flowing or gas lifted. The production rate was controlled by a single adjustable valve, or choke that operated like the throttle on a car. The key to maximizing production was to find an ideal setting. The key to finding the ideal setting was to make any changes small and slowly, and then wait. The key was patience. Make a change, and wait. Change one thing and change everything. The entire system is changed and patience is absolutely required to ensure accurate well data but just as importantly to prevent impacting the entire interlinked production system.
 
My understanding of macro economics is simplistic. I am just the guy in dirty coveralls with a wrench and a rag but it seems to me the Fed ran abnormally low rates for ten years. This experiment in market manipulation has created unknown structural imbalances. Trying to normalize in less than that time span is almost certain to create an upset conditions. I don’t fear higher interest rates. I fear the Fed raising them prematurely.
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#6
Everyday is a "confusing day in bondland" to me. Never have liked the things because of the up and downs you get on bond funds and not a lot of security on individual bonds. I will stick with CD's for my fixed income.
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