QE may return, the end to the Feds raising rate this year? Interesting article in Barron's (Page 34/June 25, 2018) that presents a contrarian outlook to the prevalent thought I never thought we were out of the woods from 2008 debacle, but this article- Fed Rate Cuts, QE Will Resume Soon by Avi Tiomkin makes me reflect. What's your thoughts? Personally, I am 80% aligned with his thinking.
I was on the same thinking path until he used the dollar of 2017. The dollar of 2018 even with all this shouting about Trade War has been on a steady march upward. His thoughts resonate with shades of doom here but I would ask how a strong dollar may reset a lot of plans by a lot of CBs.
Will need look deeper into the points he makes and think if the recession could be sooner rather than later.
I didn't catch the 2017 dollar comp issue. I would assume that was the most recent/verified reference available.
My reservation was the deflationary prediction as he makes the cart before the horse alignment that seemed out of sequence (intuitively).
I still believe Spring 2019, a recession will be evident.
Yes....I agree....much US $ denominated debt in the world because interest rates are so low and seeming ability to print an unlimited amount of dollars....that is why I keep saying the next recession is likely to be at least somewhat debt related.
DoubleDown... I would love to start buying Brazil; any ideas on timing..
PS I added a few Healthcare REITs into my mix yielding around 6% after they got beat up.