NVIDIA...where do we go from here?

[Waterbug]

Did a day hike and came back to find I lost my shirt...down 17k on a single stock (my largest single holding).  BARF!   Are all of the negatives priced in and has the market over-reacted to the "expected" quarterly report results.  I think it's too late to sell as all the negatives are priced.  What do you think?

[Nick_Miller]

moneywise that is a personal question, do you need to manage risk, do you need to preserve capital
 
trade wise -the doji is interesting, might speak to a bounce, the gap might fill http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis....mode=stock[url=http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=NVDA&cobrand=&mode=stock][/url]

i am more confident in macro than ta

you could trade out of it,  put in a stop 10-12% lower, buy an option or perhaps Fidelity could help work out a strategy for you
 
the big question with popular stocks is why?  why do folks buy them?  there might be some valid reasons but i think mostly the stock has gone up, its a known name, its a theme, or its volatile

all i know about nvda is news (see amd) and sox... is the story bitcoin mining? why would it go up in the future?

[Radagast]

YES! Over reaction. Happens all the time. Will I buy NVDA? Answer: HECK YES!

It still may fall some but they have a great new chip that once the software whinnies get control of it, game on baby!

Over supply of their current game chip and the Bit Coin craze tanked. Sorry, I would say now to just sit tight, not like there is anything else you can do at this point. I think in reality the price is back to 2017 value. So, you lost a year. Heck! What's one year!

[Jlee]

NVDA is not my kind of stock.  It has been a momentum darling for whatever reasons, and priced itself way out of any "value" play.  I'll bottom fish value stocks, but not momentum stocks.  Even after today's 19% nosedive it still has a trailing PE above 22 against an industry average below 17. 
 
I'm not saying anything against Nvidia the company or any of their products -- just their stock has been kidnapped by the momentum folks, and it's now being dumped.  It's all sentiment, and it's sentiment that makes little sense to me.   For me, it's let the stock fall to value levels.  For momentum players, what I hear the Fast Money talking heads say is wait for the stock to become loved again.
 
This is a good example of why I've given up playing momentum.  I never know when to get out.  Hopefully you took at least some profit in the 250-280 range.  Or cut some losses when it broke 250 (support trend line) Oct 10
 
If I owned a smallish amount I'd probably hold, hoping for a bounce up to maybe 200. 

[Abe]

To bad Jonh14 is not here anymore.  You could ask for her/his insight.   Sorry, I empathize with you, but I couldn't stop myself. 

[yandz]

To bad Jonh14 is not here anymore.  You could ask for her/his insight.   Sorry, I empathize with you, but I couldn't stop myself. 

Yep, he first introduced me to the trendy stock.  After my research, Cramer's CEO visit,  and other positive mentions, I took a a growing position.  Maybe a bounce much like PCG today?  I can wish?

[Azdude]

To bad Jonh14 is not here anymore.  You could ask for her/his insight.   Sorry, I empathize with you, but I couldn't stop myself. 

Yep, he first introduced me to the trendy stock.  After my research, Cramer's CEO visit,  and other positive mentions, I took a a growing position.  Maybe a bounce much like PCG today?  I can wish?

Just for the record.  FTT was apparently impersonating John14 thru use of his daughter's account, which violates community forum rules.  They were apparently one and the same.  So, it is unlikely that FTT will be back.
 
After the charade/fraud came to light, I wondered if FTT may have been a fraud, as he had some larger than life stories, although John14 apparently met him at a Schwab event about a year or so ago.  I wonder if he has seen him, since?

 

In any event, I can now understand the rationale for the rule, as falsely impersonating an employee of a company and touting the stock may have influenced many people to consider buying it.  And, depending upon the circumstances, being an employee of a company touting its stock, could have involved inside information, although in this case, John14 apparently did not exist, so no such information involved.

 

As for Nvda, it continues to be a premier chip company with promise in areas like autonomous vehicles and gaming.  To me, the downside risk is that each of the chip companies are competing to create better and cheaper chips, so there will always be ups and downs.  BUT, chips are not going away.  In fact, we will have more and more of them in just about every product we use throughout our lives.

 

And, this quarter was particularly bad for Nvda because Bitcoin mania has cooled, global growth outside of the US (especially China) appears to be slowing and the trade war/tariffs are front and center.

 

Then, there is the tech wreck highlighted by the decline in the FANG stocks.  Aapl phone sales appear to be slowing and FB and Googl have ongoing issues.

 

As a result, many investors have been rotating into value from high growth/momentum stocks.  The market has been taking down companies with solid earnings that have raised future guidance along with the companies that have failed to meet earnings expectations and have given cautious or lower forward guidance.

 
So, if you do not own it, now or soon may be the time to buy Nvda for the longer term.  If you own it higher and think that the problems/concerns will not likely be resolved in the foreseeable future, or that there will be more issues likely to take the stock down further, then I would consider selling half of the position and buying lower, or when you think that the headwinds are done.  I do think that there will be more volatility and that most stocks will be in a trading range, at least until Powell blinks on rates or the Chinese blink on trade issues.

[Nords]

Thank you all for your comprehensive reply. Lots of wisdom has been shared thus far.
 
I will probably ride this one out unless there are definitive, less hype and speculation, negative developments that will make this company  less  of a innovator or obsolete/passe. It is one of my three Mad Money stocks (the other two are in recent decline as well EA and TLND. 

But I am still a believer in their future.  EA will be my first sell if I need to bail; but not now.  I am looking forward to some Barron's and Seeking Alpha feedback as well.

 
What a week!

[Azdude]

Yes, and next week is the biggest rivalry in college football.  We may have to have a bet that if Michigan wins, you buy M, and if OSU wins, I buy Nvda.  Lol.
 
You are using solid judgment.  Most of the time, the stock recovers.  We have had a rocky time, but a lot of fears have been priced in and, sometimes when you least expect it, the tide turns.  We just do not know when. 

[firefamily]

This issue is dead I hope. We should keep in mind that NVIDIA stock is hardly suitable for dividend capture strategy...something that FTT was heavily promoting...even by trying to create some separate trading group.  I am also not sure that any individual (employee or just simply shareholder or stock admirer) has something to gain by influencing forum members to buy particular stock. I just don't think that buying action of some forum members will meaningfully reflect on a stock price of any large company.

While strong connection between both Hikerforfun and FTT was very obvious...after all their memberships were deactivated on the same day...I think that Fidelity rightfully opposes to creation of any uncontrollable or private trading group or club on this forum. That's open opportunity for fraud. If I am correct, FTT picked another forum member Sue @simpleinvestor as his contact person while he, supposedly, was traveling on unpaid government mission. Indications of some planning. Long stories about self accumulated wealth, family bond, charities, political connections and even weight loss (I copied it for coworker as an inspiration) were invented to promote organizer(s) image, while covering glaring spelling mistakes and inconsistencies. I was surprised that so many people wanted to join in...even after FTT has left the Building. Some (unsuspecting?) members of his support team are surely between us. Highly possible, that fraud of some kind or identity theft or massive money loss were in the books and we all need to be careful in the future. But nothing to be afraid of.