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When is a good time to buy?

#1
Carpe Diem (Robin Williams)
It's a good day to Die (Little Big Man)
These charts are showing support levels being violated daily and weekly (Sweetwater)
Correction?
or
Bear Rumbling?
 
I'm done with my buys for now until I see a bottom and turn up.
Whatabouch you?
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#2
There are stocks correcting every day. I am buying and trading those and also selling portions of those that have gone up rapidly and dramatically, like M.

Today, Has was on sale. I refuse to believe that people will not buy toys this holiday.

I have no idea what the low will be, but earnings season and the seasonally volatile month of October with tax loss selling, as well as the midterms, are almost over.



So, lots of fear, angst and bad news (lower forward guidance) is out there and getting priced in.

I think we will get a relief rally after the midterms. If the fed relents in its determination to raise rates according to plan, and/or there is positive news about trade tensions, even if it is only that the tariffs are delayed to facilitate negotiations, the rally will continue into the end of the year.

I am getting whiplash and it is painful at times, but I am enjoying a glass of wine and dinner out, even though it is not my birthday.
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#3
I like to sell puts during periods of high volatility. That way I don't have to be a directional hero, I just have to avoid a serious market crash. Right now, the economy is strong and there are no signs of recession. This indicates that this is probably a typical 10-15% correction and therefore it's a good buying opportunity.
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#4
If there is going to be a short term bottom it should be this week. Major tech companies with big buy back fund are reporting earnings, if the earnings are ok and they get to business of using their cash to buyback, then we will see a easy rebound from these levels...
 
In fact for Apple even if earnings is bad and they fall below 190, they may spend 25-50 billion buying the stock back and they will keep doing it for every 2-3% fall, until their 100 billion is exhausted. I am guessing that should put a floor.
 
BTW, last 4-5 weeks there was a buyback blackout, a good time for shorts to shake the tree.
 
That being said, FANG is almost in bear territory(almost -20%).....not a good sign for the bull market.
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#5
I have always had luck with the VIX as a good indicator of a broad buying signal. Above 25 starts to catch my eye. Above 30 gets me excited and if it spikes way above that as it rarely has in the past, you gotta go all in.

Just remember “when the VIX is high, it’s time to buy”
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#6
Good point waltworks!  Makes so much sense.
 
Dumb me always viewed the Vix as a measure of volatility (market up and down) instead of investors fear and blood in the street.
 
Must have skipped that day in class.
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