QE may return, the end to the Feds raising rate this year?  Interesting article in Barron's  (Page 34/June 25, 2018) that presents a contrarian outlook to the prevalent thought  I never thought we were out of the woods from 2008 debacle, but this article- Fed Rate Cuts, QE Will Resume Soon  by Avi Tiomkin makes me reflect.  What's your thoughts?  Personally, I am 80% aligned with his thinking.

Right now, I see several banks offering 5-year CDs with APY at 3%+. That's not quite high enough for me to pull money out of equities, but I'm starting to look hard at the extra cash that I have sitting in my brokerage accounts that I was saving as dry powder.  At 4%, I think I would start pulling a little money out of equities, and at 5%+, I think I would target around 20%+ in CDs, though I think I would ramp that up over time as opposed to all at once.
 
I'm sort of happy that people can earn somewhat decent returns from CDs now, but I wonder what effects that will have on equity (and bond) markets?

Not everyone wants to retire.  I am sure Warren Buffet does not have to work but still does,  Others decide to retire early.
 
Why did you decide to retire early? Or, why did you decide to keep working? I would be interested in what community members have to say.
 
In my case, I retired at 58, which is a little early.  The main reasons I decided to retire early mainly revolved around health:
 

1. Health reason Number 1. - My wife and i are in reasonably good - although not perfect - health.  We wanted to retire while we were still healthy so we could better enjoy our retirement years.
   
   
2. Health reason Number 2 - We both benefit from regular exercise and have about 45 minutes to an hour of moderate exercise every day (not counting the time to get to the gym, shower, etc.).  Could we do that while working? Maybe on some days, but not really every day, considering working hours, business dinners, business travel, etc.
   
   
3. Finances - We both saved as much as we could while working.  Now our spending on necessities amounts to less than 1% of our financial assets.  Our regular spending including necessities amounts to less than 2% of our financial assets.  We could have worked longer, but how much money do you need?
   
   
4. Interests. We both have outside interests (vacation travel, exercise, volunteer work, Homeowner's Association Board, etc.) to keep us busy and help maintain an established routine..
   

Looking for insight/opinions on retiring at 51. I have ~$2.5M invested in a 7/12 portfolio. Living debt free and own house. Looking to live of $100k a year. May work a little here and there to keep busy. Would like to hear any thoughts/concerns.

Up to 85% of Social Security benefits may be taxed.  The exact amount that is subject to tax is determined via a somewhat confusing calculation with non-intuitive results. In addition, once you know how much is taxed, the marginal impact from that income may be much higher than one might expect, e.g., if it pushes, say, other income (e.g., investment income) into a higher tax bracket. So, knowing the amount subject to tax may really be just one important input.


There's a good free on-line calculator to estimate the amount subject to tax: How much of my social security benefit may be taxed?

 
In my own case, I try to have a spreadsheet to estimate my taxes for the year.  Part of that spreadsheet has a "subroutine" to estimate the amount of social security that night be subject to tax.  As others might have an interest in that kind of calculation, I attach the excel spreadsheet "subroutine" here.  The input cells are in yellow and the other cells are protected (although you can turn that off; there is no password).
 

If anyone finds a significant difference between my spreadsheet and the link above, please let me know so I can correct it.

I want to invest 10K for my 15 year old child (not to be touched for the next 40+ years). Planning on putting in 5K each in fidelity's Newest zero fee MFs  FZROX & FZILX .
 
What are your thoughts?
 
thanks!

My wife and I are 12 years different in age (I am older.) I'm in late 40's. Have funded my own 401k well for years. Wife does not have 401k. Now with 2 kids, we can't fund all 401k limit for me and do both her and my Roth IRA as well. What are questions I need to be asking to determine how to prioritize 401k, her Roth, and my Roth? Does 12 years difference help us because of when we would have to withdraw and thus it would be better to balance amounts over time? Thanks for any insights.

Following the Jackson Hole conference and a major dose of Fed-speak / Open Mouth Policy, here are the forward rate predictions built into prices and curves at today's close:
Fed funds policy rate (mid):  Sept up to 2.125%,  NEXT Mar-19 up to 2.375%, THEN Sept-19 up to 2.625.  That's it....end of hikes for this cycle!
5yr Treasury note yield five years forward (Q3-2023):  2.91%
5yr TIPs yield five years forward: 0.71%
Treasury/TIPs breakeven inflation expectations:   5yrs: 2%    10yrs: 2.10%     30yrs: 2.12%
 
Those are the forward rate predictions currently built into the curve and prices, values established by current equilibrium prices resulting from the market interactions of all global dollar rate traders, investors and speculators.
 
Aside:  Equity touts will be shouting next week about the Fed Atlanta current Q3 GDP estimate of 4.6%.  BUT the Fed NY model preducts 2.0%, the Blue Chip economists average estimate is about 3.1%, and the ECRI leading indicators growth rate has dropped to zero, suggesting a serious decline in GDP growth in H1-2019. 
 
All of this inspires me to use next week to get fully invested in income CEFs with earned yields in the high 7%'s and 8+%. What do you think?

Regards, 
Kelsey 

I sell cash covered put options for income with the intent not to own the stock.  Taking into consideration that it is no the only determinant, do u decide to sell a put option when the underlying stock is moving higher (bull) or lower (bear)?  There are pros and cons about each and not just price variance considerations.  I have watched, and particpated, when stocks have been strongly recommended with excellent balance sheets and then have severe price declines - such as Facebook at last earnings.  I have watched, and participated, when stocks have had extremely negative recommendations and awful balance sheets and have declined and then skyrocketed higher - Tesla and Netflix.  I have bull and bear put option participated, and eventually covered call participated, as well as the positive and negative side of these 3 stocks and many others.  i usually look for Deltas around -20, giving me an approximate 80% probablity of success, about 30 +/- days out.
 
Bull reasoning - underlying stock ESS is very bullish or bullish, analysts positiive, earnings look like they will be positive or are positive, price moving higher whether gradual or spike, news positive.  Everything looks like the price will continue to climb so it would make sense to sell puts.  I have noticed that many stocks hit then stop climbing higher and start to move lower and often to and below my strike price.  This is not necessarily the technical resistence level.
 
Bear erasoning - underlying stock ESS is very bearish or bearish, analysts negative, earnings poor, price declines and sometimes significantly, news negative, etc.  I have often found that after a stock crashes it hit a price level and begins to climb sometimes all the way up to and beyond the original price.  This is not necessarily the technical support level.

If it is, would it also be good for the companies that offer it? If so, how do they make money and why not ETFs too? Would it not be better if the companies pay investors to buy their funds? I'm confused!