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For those in cash, when do you plan on investing?

#11
I'm about 80% invested -- 50/50 equities and short term corporate bonds.  I've been putting more cash to work in short term bonds and fire sale stocks with strong balance sheets and pay attractive dividends -- mainly those that have been crushed but have a good 5 year outlook (big oil/gas/services/pipelines, industrial, materials).  My aim is to gradually move more into investment grade corporate bonds since I am nearing retirement age.
 
As for short bonds, my take is that a quarter point move by the Fed, whether it arrives this year or early '16, is already baked into short term bond prices (1 to 5 year maturities) -- I'm in the camp that the Fed will move gradually during the next few years.  I'm only buying investment grade bonds via ETFs with target maturities that behave like individual bonds that I will hold to maturity, and not bond funds that respond to Fed moves (real or anticipated).  Plenty of investors use short term bond ETFs like cash, so equity margin squeezes and fear a more aggressive Fed will lead to liquidations, as prices come down, I'm buying at discounts as they occur.
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#12
(11-30-2018, 08:35 AM)DoubleDown Wrote: I'm about 80% invested -- 50/50 equities and short term corporate bonds.  I've been putting more cash to work in short term bonds and fire sale stocks with strong balance sheets and pay attractive dividends -- mainly those that have been crushed but have a good 5 year outlook (big oil/gas/services/pipelines, industrial, materials).  My aim is to gradually move more into investment grade corporate bonds since I am nearing retirement age.
 
As for short bonds, my take is that a quarter point move by the Fed, whether it arrives this year or early '16, is already baked into short term bond prices (1 to 5 year maturities) -- I'm in the camp that the Fed will move gradually during the next few years.  I'm only buying investment grade bonds via ETFs with target maturities that behave like individual bonds that I will hold to maturity, and not bond funds that respond to Fed moves (real or anticipated).  Plenty of investors use short term bond ETFs like cash, so equity margin squeezes and fear a more aggressive Fed will lead to liquidations, as prices come down, I'm buying at discounts as they occur.

FWIW - AAII has several mathematical models which support a rising equity glide path as you near retirement. I'm not near that so I didn't bother reading it but something in case you want to do some afternoon reading.
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#13
In 2018 I have not been buying much as far as stocks/bonds. I have invested a substantial amount of cash in one of the private lending platforms. I am averaging just under 9% return after fees and bad debt. I have over 400 loans with interest rates from around 6% to 14%. Mostly 3 year notes, so while that money is no longer liquid, I am making 9x what a bank account would pay. As monthly payments come in I am reinvesting in new loans.
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#14
Almost all pundits advise against try to time the market in such a way. That is all in or all out. I agree. Yet taking a substantial amount off the table when the market seems fully priced or over-priced seems to make great sense. This has served me well over many market cycles. I now have about 30% of my equity portfolio in cash. I also keep enough cash to last a couple years on a tight budget without needing to sell near market lows. I am retired and supplement Soc Sec by withdrawing from my IRAs. When working, I tried to keep 6 months worth of cash on hand in case of losing a job. Half of our equity is in 2 rental houses. In a normal year, rents provide 1/3 of our income. The last crash killed RE and Stocks at the same time. But I still consider our RE holdings to be good diversification. We live in Portland OR. Because people are moving into the area, I think values will continue to go up here by more than 5% a year for at least a few more years. Net rental income is about 2 or 3 % of value.
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#15
I started buying back in about 3 weeks ago - 10% of my original cash per week. So far so good. My personal feeling is that the market is back on the way up for the long term, undoubtedly with some bumps.
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#16
International and emerging markets are looking attractive. I added to my position in OAKIX two weeks ago (Closed to new investors, but there other 5-star funds in the same space).
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