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  Market Perspective
Posted by: primozaj - 09-15-2018, 11:47 PM - Forum: Funds - Replies (2)

The following looks at some long-term history for the S&P 500 (since 1950).

 
I know most perspectives are based on things like P/E and earnings growth, but this is really just looking at past price history.
 
Any other opinions/perspectives to share?
 
Note that I am taking no action based on any of this.
 
*****************************************************************************************************************************
 
[b]A. S&P 500 Price History:[/b]
   
Overall, the S&P 500 has grown exponentially (from 16.66 on January 3, 1950).  The price (without reinvested dividends) since early 1950 has grown about 147 times, for an annualized increase over 67.5 years of about 7.67% per year.  In the same period, CPI has grown about 10.4 times, for an annual increase of about 3.5%.  The "real" return on price (without dividends) has thus averaged about 4% per year.
 
If dividends were reinvested (not shown), the total return would be about 11.2% per year, or a real return (after inflation) including the reinvested dividends of about 7.4% per year.

B. The following is the same chart on a log scale:


It is interesting to note a few things:
1. Overall how close the price stays to the trend-line
2. The extended period from the late 1960s until the early 1980s when the market was relatively flat.
3. The obvious bubbles in 2000 and 2008, as well other periods above or below trend.
4. The little squiggles can actually represent some significant changes (since it is a log scale)
5. From the chart it is not at all clear that we are in any kind of bubble now (July 2017).


  New to retirement... How to sleep at night?
Posted by: primozaj - 09-15-2018, 11:45 PM - Forum: Retirement - Replies (9)

I'm 63 my wife is 60. I sold my company in March of this year for 1.5m to be paid over the next 5 1/2 years at 20k per month. Sale includes paying our medical insurance until I reach Medicare age. After that I pay my wife's insurance until she's medicare age as well as all supplements for both. I also have stocks and mutual funds worth about 1m, savings at approx 800k (not invested sitting in Ally @ 2.5%) A paid off home @ 500k and paid off lake house at 200k. I am putting approx. 250k into the lake house then we will sell our home and live at the lake full time. I paid off both our kids homes and they are paying us 1k per month each interest free for about another 15 years (I have this in separate accts. in hopes of never using it and giving it back to them when paid off). Right now we spent about 150k a year but 25k of that is for our home. I've done the retirement calculator and it seems okay but I worry about where and how I should be invested.

After 5 1/2 years the only income will be SS about 41k per year for both. I've made about 10% a year investing but I am concerned going forward. The great unknowns are stock market, taxes, medical... Basing plans on living to 85 the wife 95.
Any advice on how to stop worrying or is it warranted?


  RICP, CFP Financial Plan
Posted by: Kanga16 - 09-14-2018, 09:36 AM - Forum: Life Events - Replies (12)

I have been a growth investor for the past 25 years.
The pot is now big enough to sustain me or my wife individually or combined according to those sites recommended here and the Fidelity software.
My Fidelity Advisor has simply said, "Don't do anything stupid and you're in great shape."
The issue is that my wife continues to work and generates a very good income while I've been retired the past 7.5 years.
She is now discussing how and when to cut back on her work over the next 2-3 years.
We're both 62 although I'm 1955 vintage vs her 1954 vintage so a bit of impact on SSN.
Since we both have significant IRA's, I don't want MRD's to cause us Medicare penalties.
I'd also like to move some of that IRA into Roth's when our income goes down (she doesn't work).
To engage her in the planning process I looked at enrolling in a class at a local private college, Retirement Planning in Today's Economy.
I've done all that coursework already so I called the sponsor to learn more about where this class leads.
The teacher is a Retirement Income Certified Planner who is also working on his CFP.
Seems to hit the nail on the head, I need to shift from Growth to Income production to replace my wife's income.
Of course, he'll enroll us in his service which can be a fee for service or him managing the accounts.
The fee for service is $2500 to set up the plan which I am responsible to enact and maintain.
Scheduled consults are $150 for questions/review.
Compared to the amount of management fees for this, it seems to be a great deal.
I'd like to hear other opinions about this and should I try to get other people to review his plan?
He is SEC registered with no filings or complaints and I think I've contacted the right person for this task.
There are so many promo's for Financial Planning and Management services that take 1-2% annually, I want to avoid those.
What am I missing?


  When to collect Social Security - Over discussed I know!
Posted by: Kanga16 - 09-14-2018, 09:27 AM - Forum: Social Security - Replies (8)

Yes, we've talked this one to death, but I'm still struggling.  I've come to the conclusion that if you have adequate retirement savings, the issue of when to take Social Security is pretty much a wash assuming you make to to age 80 and beyond.  I was first inclined to wait to age 70.  Then I decided, no.  Take it at age 66 when I reach FRA.  Now, I'm struggling once again.  The big  benefit I see to waiting to age 70 is that if you look at it as a guaranteed annuity, for me it's an extra $800 bucks a month inflation adjusted of guaranteed income.  Is it worth the deferred gratification?  I still don't know


  Delaying Social Security benefits until age 70.. Now I intend to start benefits next
Posted by: CCCA - 09-14-2018, 09:26 AM - Forum: Retirement - Replies (33)

This is a bit of a read, but I think you will find it worthwhile.
 
There are SO many advantages to deferring benefits:

  1. Between ages 66 and 70, your benefit grows roughly 8% a year

  2. I could use those 4 deferral years to maximize my Roth conversions which would reduce the amount of taxes that I paid on my SS benefits later because my RMDs would be less.

  3. If I died before my wife, she would receive higher survivor benefits if I claimed at age 70 instead of age 66.
 
But a couple of hours banging around in an Excel spreadsheet changed my mind.  Everyone is different and “your mileage may vary”, but you might find my results interesting.  I have come to understand that a key factor in my situation (but not unlike many others) is that my wife has a limited work history and is only eligible for spousal benefits on my work record.  I have always read that the “breakeven” age (the age where you catch up on lost benefits when claiming later) is typically the early 80’s.  But in my situation this was not the case.  My breakeven age was 88.  And it didn’t matter what Full Retirement Age benefits I used in the spreadsheet.  If I used a 0% return on investment, the breakeven age was always right at 88.  If I used a 2% return on investment, the breakeven age was always right at 94.  If I used any return great than 2%, neither I nor my wife could possibly live long enough to recoup the loss of waiting to claim at age 70.
 
Profuse head scratching brought me to two realizations.
 
  1. When the IRS says that you will receive the same amount of lifetime benefits regardless of the age that you claim (assuming you die when the tables say you should), they mean exactly that. But what they don’t say is that the increased benefit at age 70 does NOT compensate you for the time value of money.  It only  compensates you for the four years of missed benefits, not the compound rate of return that you could have gotten on those benefits.

  2. Spousal benefits max out at age 66.  They do NOT increase at 8% a year between ages 66 and 70 like workers benefits.  So by deferring until age 70, our total benefit is not 32% higher but only 21% higher (or slightly over 5% a year).
 
So then I began doing “what ifs” to see how increased age 70 spousal benefits would affect the breakeven age.  To my amazement I could die at any age between 70 and 95 and it would not affect the breakeven age at all.  If my assumed return was 0%, breakeven age was 88.  If my assumed return was 2%, breakeven age was 94.  This defies conventional logic … but I cannot find an error in the calcs.
 

 
The next thing I did was use my tax spreadsheet to compare ending (age 95) portfolio value using age 66 benefits vs age 70 benefits.  This would tell me how not being able to maximize Roth conversions for the next 4 years would affect my situation.  After a bit of spreadsheet modeling I determined that taking benefits at age 66 was less desirable if my assumed investment return was less than 2%.  Any return greater than 2% made taking benefits at age 66 more desirable.  2% is a pretty low hurdle even for me.
 

 
So there you have it.  Even as stubborn as I am, I have changed my mind about when to start taking SS benefits.  Probably the most important takeaway is “Don’t assume … do the math”.  I would really love it if one of you other spreadsheet geeks  (chuckfinn?) could corroborate or refute my findings.


  Can you plan for a retirement of 20-30 years or is it too long?
Posted by: cloudsail - 09-14-2018, 09:16 AM - Forum: Savings - Replies (5)

After someone retires, do they change spending habits or not?
This article speaks about eating out 3X a week, take multiple cruises every year, have all daughters and wind up paying for multiple weddings. Most of what is written here seems utterly bizarre and out of character to both new and older retirees to me.
 
Let's hear your thoughts and comments.


  Dividend Stocks instead of Bonds
Posted by: cloudsail - 09-14-2018, 09:13 AM - Forum: Bonds - Replies (2)

What are your thoughts on dividend stocks vs bonds. Certainly, dividend stocks pay better than bonds right now. I was watching a google talk by Donald Yacktman that pointed this out.


  The 7-Deadly Investing Sins, this reminds me of grade school
Posted by: Marty998 - 09-14-2018, 09:10 AM - Forum: Stocks - Replies (4)

Wrath – never get angry; just fix the problem and move on.
Greed – greed causes investors to lose more money investing than at the point of a gun.
Sloth – don’t be lazy; if you don’t pay attention to your money – why should anyone else?
Pride – when things are going good don’t be prideful – pride leads to the fall. You are NOT smarter than the market, and it will “eat you alive” as soon as you think you are.
Lust – lusting after some investment will lead you to overpay for it. 
Envy – this goes along with Lust and Greed
Gluttony – never, ever over-indulge. Putting too much into one investment is a recipe for disaster.
 
Advice is often worth exactly what you pay for it, and sometimes not even that. A friend passed these along to me some time ago and I thought to share them with you.


  Macys stock with covered call, good idea?
Posted by: Marty998 - 09-14-2018, 09:06 AM - Forum: Options - Replies (8)

I already have a small position in Macy's, with covered call of strike 30 in my IRA, established back in January when it was trading below 30.
 
Thinking of increasing it significantly, I want to make it 7-8% of my portfolio.
 
But this time I wan to play it more safe, I will sell call of strike 28 Jan 2019, for premium of $3.
This will yield around 5% from dividend and another 5% from call premium, total yield of 10%.
 
Pros and cons of this stock:
 
Pro:
1. They have around $12-20 billion in real estate.
2. They are still profitable and pay 5% dividend from profits.
3. Easy to buy this company above $30 due to macy's brand value and Real Estate.
 
Cons:
1. Retail as we know, is dying but management of public companies wont shrink their operations since that will make their salary and bonuses smaller, they will usually run it till it goes bankrupt.
2. Management may make it hard for acquisitions since currently they enjoy nice salary and bonuses since it seems to be highly profitable company, only because they don't have to pay rent. Management strategy is to sell RE in small chunks and use that cash for their expenses making the company look profitable. They would like to simply keep selling RE and run this company for 20-25 years from those cash flows till everything runs out.
3. Value of Retail real estate is falling since most people now shop online.


  "T" short term pain or gain ?
Posted by: Marty998 - 09-14-2018, 09:05 AM - Forum: Short Term Investing (Less Than 1 Year) - Replies (5)

ATT is my only communication stock and keeps me in line with the Dow Jones Average according to FFF's  analysis feature.  5% dividend doesn't cover the the losses.  I'm too old to wait too long for recovery at present rate.  Does anyone have a better suggestion in this sector or should I hold on for long term?